Empire of Shadows

By: Interview by Deborah and Jordan Tappis | Photographs by Peter Taras | February 16, 2010 | Politics

If you want to gain insight into the vast dynamics at work in the Middle East — its complex and perilously divided culture, convoluted politics and inimitable history — Bob Baer is your go-to man. Baer is the best-selling author of Sleeping With the Devil, Blow The House Down, The Devil We Know and 2005’s See No Evil, which served as the guiding force behind Steven Gaghan’s award-winning film Syriana. He is a regular contributor to The Wall Street Journal, The Huffington Post, The Washington Post, Time.com, and a frequent commentator and interview subject on CNN, Frontline and MSNBC. Baer’s deep knowledge of the Middle East and his uncanny ability to explain complex geopolitical and religious canon stems from his 21 years as a case officer in the Central Intelligence Agency. Fluent in Arabic, Farsi, French and German, he has acknowledged field assignments in hot zones like Lebanon, Iraq, Morocco, Madras and Tajikistan. He is a respected authority on the entire region, and his informed perspective on the ever-changing political landscape in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan is particularly noteworthy. Earlier this month, we had the opportunity to interview Baer about the current state of affairs in Iran and Iraq, and his views on the recent escalation of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

What is America’s biggest misconception about the Muslim world?
I suppose that Islam is an expansive religion; that Muslims intend to re-create the Caliphate.

What do you think of President Obama’s plan for increasing troop levels in Afghanistan? Why does Obama see this as the “right war ?”
There is no way we can win in Afghanistan, no matter how many years we are there or how many troops we send. The fact that no general or diplomat has even begun to define what victory would look like in that country tells the story. It’s perceived as the “right war” in the sense that 9/11 was organized from Afghanistan — at least in America’s popular political consciousness.

Aside from Afghanistan, how do you feel about the Obama administration’s foreign policy strategy in the Middle East?
Obama does not have the strength — and maybe mandate — to take on the old vested interests in the Middle East, from Saudi Arabia to Syria, from Egypt to Israel. He will be lucky if he talks Iran out of a nuclear bomb.

What would President Obama have to do to “take on” those old Middle Eastern interests?
To move the Middle East off dead center, U.N. Resolution 242 needs to be implemented — in short, a Palestinian state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. The only way to effectively undercut Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah propaganda is to enforce all resolutions.

(Editor’s note: U.N. Resolution 242 was adopted by the U.N. Security Council in 1967 in the aftermath of the Six-Day War. It mandates the withdrawl of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied during the conflict, and the acknowledgement of sovereignty and political independence of every state in the surrounding area. It has never been enforced.)

In your latest book, The Devil We Know, you say America either has to increase its troop levels to upwards of 500,000 and be prepared to engage in a 30-to-100-yearlong war, or we must find a way to work with Iran. Why is Iran the key to stabilizing the region, and what concessions will we have to make if we are to forge a lasting partnership with Iran?
Iran is an expanding power with or without the mullahs. It has a rocket force that can retaliate across the Middle East. It can cause us a lot more misery in Iraq and Afghanistan. To truly contain Iran, we would need the same resources we threw into the Cold War. I think at the end of the day, Americans are going to say enough is enough — if for no other reason than it really is a choice between butter and guns. If the draft was in place, and we were paying for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (rather than borrowing for them from the Chinese), both wars would come to a quick end. It’s in this context we need to try to reach an accommodation with Iran. I believe Iran is ultimately a rational power, and there are terms it would accept — probably at the expense of our Arab allies. The only way we’re going to find out is if we sit down at the negotiating table and ask what the regime wants.

Within the theological framework of Shia Islam, believers have an obligation called Taqiyah that authorizes the use of subterfuge in order to protect Islam. How can we faithfully negotiate with a people who openly advocate lying?
Taqiyah is an individual obligation to protect an individual’s faith. Iran lies in international relations much like any other country. You will notice that Iran is trying the prison guards who beat to death demonstrators after last year’s election, while the Obama administration has said it’s time to move on, put behind us things like extraordinary renditions and torture. As odd as it sounds, you have to ask who’s more forthcoming.

How did Iran go from being a country that sponsored terrorism to a country on the verge of becoming a world superpower?
Iranians are a clever people, brilliant in understanding asymmetrical warfare. They’re also technologically capable, as we saw when they nearly sank an Israeli corvette during the 2006 war. And Iran also has sheer size on its side. Combine that with a resurgent Shia Islam, and you have a regional superpower on your hands. Iran’s ability to take out the world’s reserve tank, Gulf oil, makes it a world-class power.

Who is actually in charge of Iran?
Good question. Since the June elections, it’s pretty much the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Supreme Leader’s power is grounded in the IRGC, as well as the security services and conservative judiciary.

Has the United States set up back channels to communicate directly with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard?
No.

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